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2023 新加坡香格里拉對話會.聚焦中國 ASIA-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023

2023/06/03 11:03:56瀏覽177｜回應1｜推薦1

Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023.

The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment examines key regional security issues relevant to the policy-focused discussions of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defence summit. The dossier is launched each year at the Dialogue and the issues analysed within its covers are central to discussions at the event.al Security Assessment 2023, chaired by Dr Lynn Kuok, co-editor of the dossier, authors discuss key regional security challenges and respond to questions from the audience. It was held in-person for those attending the Shangri-La Dialogue and also online to allow for other interested colleagues and friends to join in. We trust that the analyses provided in the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment will contribute to important, timely and policy-releva.

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The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment examines key regional security issues relevant to the policy-focused discussions of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defence summit. The dossier is launched each year at the Dialogue and the issues analysed within its covers are central to discussions at the event.

This edition of the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment, publication of which coincides with the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue, is the tenth in the series. Among its highlights are analyses of the challenges posed by not only various dimensions of Chinas growing power and increasingly active posture in the Asia-Pacific, but also the impact of the war in Ukraine on the regional balance of power.

Topics covered in the volumes chapters include US-China relations and the growing threat to Taiwan; Asia-Pacific naval capabilities and operations; the progress of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative over the decade since it was launched; Japanese security and defence policy under Prime Minister Kishida Fumio; and the conflict in Myanmar and the international responses it has provoked. Authors this year are drawn exclusively from IISS experts.

In this launch of the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023, chaired by Dr Lynn Kuok, co-editor of the dossier, authors discuss key regional security challenges and respond to questions from the audience. It was held in-person for those attending the Shangri-La Dialogue and also online to allow for other interested colleagues and friends to join in. We trust that the analyses provided in the Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment will contribute to important, timely and policy-relevant discussions at the Dialogue and beyond.

新加坡香格里拉對話會（IISS Shangri-La Dialogue）.香格里拉對話會主辦方英國國際戰略研究所（IISS）東南亞政治與外交高級研究員（Aaron Connelly）對BBC國際台（BBC World Service）說：「東南亞以至於更廣泛的太平洋地區均對中國在南中國海與台灣海峽的作為感到憂慮，但相對地也有人在憂慮美國及其盟友透過建立這些我們常稱為小多邊（minilateral）的機制又想做些什麼?

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國家戰略專家分析認為2023.新加坡香格里拉對話會（IISS Shangri-La Dialogue) 聚焦中國對於亞太地區的安全議題,發展探討及批判中國強勢崛起,其軍事力量足以嚴重影響到亞太地區的和平穩定,這樣一來似乎是美國與西方國家幕後主導的公審批判大會,已經背離了大會設立的宗旨.

各卷章節涵蓋的主題包括美中關係和對台灣日益增長的威脅, 亞太海軍能力和行動；中國“一帶一路”倡議提出十年來取得的進展, 岸田文雄首相領導下的日本安全和防衛政策；緬甸的衝突及其引發的國際反應。 2023.的作者完全來自 IISS 專家。

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.U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (right) shakes hands with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu during the opening dinner for the 20th International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s annual defense and security forum, in Singapore on June 2.02023..

U.S.-China Rivalry Looms Large at Shangri-La

But the two countries’ defense chiefs won’t be holding a meeting on the summit’s sidelines.

All Eyes on Shangri-La.Stormy U.S.-China ties are set to dominate conversations as defense officials convene for the Shangri-La Dialogue, a major annual security summit that kicked off Friday in Singapore and stretches through Sunday. Over 600 delegates representing nearly 50 countries will take part.

From the outset, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese used his keynote address to stress the importance of communication between Washington and Beijing. Without the “pressure valve of dialogue,” he said, “there is always a much greater risk of assumptions spilling over into irretrievable action and reaction.” The ramifications of such a collapse, he warned, “would be devastating for the world.”

China has rejected U.S. efforts to set up a meeting at the summit between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart, Li Shangfu, the Wall Street Journal reported this week. Beijing responded pointedly, arguing that Washington should “show sincerity” and “create necessary conditions for dialogue.” Even without a set meeting, Austin and Li were seen shaking hands on Friday, and observers will be watching closely for other exchanges in Singapore.

除此之外大會聚焦中國的國防部部長與美國的國防部部長,為什麼不交流討論亞太地區的和平安全議題.（中,美）兩國都關心如何避免直接衝突,毫無疑問因為諸多顯而易見的原因,他們都希望避免戰爭.但目前並無明確或顯而易見的辦法去解決台灣問題。」

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中國本來也希望把台灣問題按下不表，但最近有了變化。台灣並非獨立國家，但受到美國某種程度的保護，華府必須面對應對台海問題策略並不容易的現實。

美國五角大樓20230529日公布中國笛國防部部長李尚福拒絕會晤美國的國防部部長奧斯汀後,中國國防部發言人20230531日說：「對話不能沒有原則,溝通不能沒有底線。當前兩軍交流面臨的困難,責任完全在美方。」

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CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE A DECADE ON

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has served as an avenue for Chinese infrastructure development across the Asia-Pacific. However, not all countries there have received equal attention or embraced BRI membership. Following a 2018 peak, BRI investments have slowed, providing a window for Western alternatives. While concerns of ‘debt-trap’ diplomacy – due to indebtedness to China – may not have been borne out, Beijing seems to be moving towards promoting Chinese-centric norms of security, development and digital governance.

THE BRI IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC AND ITS EVOLVING THEMATIC FOCUS
The BRI’s focus in the Asia-Pacific has shifted in line with Beijing’s strategic interests, with most investment being directed towards Southeast Asia and South Asia. The BRI has also shifted from hardinfrastructure projects to digital-infrastructure projects. New diplomatic initiatives build on Chinese infrastructure and connectivity investments to promote Chinese narratives and norms.

BRI IMPLEMENTATION: CHINESE RHETORIC VS WESTERN APPREHENSIONS
Beijing has espoused the BRI as a project to increase connectivity and infrastructure. Western concerns have focused on China’s intentions and the potential for debt-trap diplomacy. However, Beijing might find itself in a debt trap of its own making following the BRI’s early years of unregulated investment and recipient countries’ economic difficulties.

RIPOSTES TO THE BRI: INITIATIVES BY OTHER POWERS
Western actors have tried to offer alternatives to BRI infrastructure projects. And while even taken together such efforts do not equal the BRI’s funding so far, their timing may be fortuitous: due to China’s economic downturn, its spending on such projects is unlikely to increase in the near term.

THE BRI’S FUTURE AND ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY
Beijing seeks to build on the BRI through new initiatives that promote Chinese concepts of security. Consequently, the Asia-Pacific will become a battleground for norms and values of relevance to the future of the international order. It will be important to observe the extent to which, and how, China manages to convert its BRI and digital investments into useful influence..

Defence chiefs, including for the US and China, call on S’pore leaders ahead of 20th Shangri-La Dialogue..

.Defence chiefs from around the world, including the United States and China, called on Singapore’s leaders on Friday, on the sidelines of the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue.

Acting Prime Minister Lawrence Wong hosted Chinese State Councillor and Defence Minister Li Shangfu at The Treasury, as part of the Chinese general’s introductory visit to Singapore.

Police checks on vehicles around Shangri-La Hotel due to 20th Shangri-La Dialogue from June 2-4 - Mothership.SG - News from Singapore, Asia and around the world

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