美联储加息 and what I saw - 蝙蝠的部落格 - udn部落格

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美联储加息 and what I saw

2016/12/17 07:39:13瀏覽169｜回應6｜推薦0

美联储加息

--after Trump elected, banks stocks jump high, I thought we would get a bit more interest from banks but it didn't happen. yesterday I tried to get $200 bonus from my bank if I open a new saving account and bring in $15,000(from our another bank).

the banker looking at our accounts(I have several accounts because the bonus) then told me already have the same saving account. then I told her brought $15000 new money. then she was highly interesting and tried to see whether any other way, but because we always open joint-type account so can't qualify.

bonus is the only way you can get one time "interest-substitude" from banks.

for prepring tax report, I found out the mutual funds we bought from bank, OGEAX unit price in 4/1/13 was $35.559(IRA account dividends auto-buy, always high), 4/18/13 $35.22, 4/21/13 $35.3 and 12/15/2016 $35.04

mutual fund OLGAX 4/18/13 $25.31, 4/21/13 $25.35, 2/28/15 $36.55 3/16/15 $36.57 and 12/15/16 $32.09, OSGIX about similar curve as OLGAX.

the worst we have is 401K FMAGX we bought 3/13/2000 unit price $133.57 kept down to 2/22/02 $97.57, 12/5/08 $42.37 12/28/11 $62.34 and 12/16/16 $92.4

when it is goes high I won't hyper because it is just magic digital number, not real unless you sell w/o buy any, and if you buy another high you probalbly didn't make money but pay for broker fee.

when we receive didvidends, I only pray our original cost still be the same. we have att stocks always received dividends but unit price kept down, just felt the dividends came from our principal(本金), same as other mutual funds especially during economic recession.

Any way we stop investing and spent more time in what we can enjoy from internet free programs.

( 在地生活｜北美 )

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2017/03/03 07:16

美最大鞋商Payless欠債百億拖累兩岸鞋業
my husband bought shoes from payless nearby our house. he thought quite good quality.
obviously china and taiwan didn't pay attention when the company delay payment. And this is not the 1st case, there is a sports related (during bloody wars?) that my brother in law's classmate ran to usa and dragged down taiwan and china factories including his relative. keep in mind more and more retired baby booms in usa, usa oil price can't continue go up because of that reason.
雷曼兄弟, Nan-San insurance company, what is the next? very scary. 2016 banks interest we got less($32.09) comparing with 2015($233.09), even government already increased rate in 2015.
the bank tried hard to get all our investments that put in other places, we are very hesitate as Trump declared reduce the security limitations for banks.
I wonder the next could be clothing-related, those not daily necessary to buy.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2017-03-03 07:20 回覆：
my suggest for china and taiwan, you can pay credit check service before it too late. however it is not 100% guarantee.


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2016/12/26 01:50

2017年债市会否崩盘？法媒称特朗普胜选系不利影响 ..法国《论坛报》网站12月21日报道称，“‘债市泡沫’就要破裂了吗？”美国哥伦比亚天利投资公司欧洲投资部负责人马克·伯吉斯最近在思考这个问题。他曾认为，特朗普的当选可能会加速债市泡沫的破裂。他19日在对2017年的展望中指出：“数万亿美元的债券交易出现了负收益，这意味着其收益率与通胀上升相比已完全落后。现在应当谨慎一些。”过去数月，这种担忧屡屡被提及。

美联储前主席格林斯潘多次提到，这已不再是股票市场“非理性繁荣”让人担忧的情况，而是债券市场的估值已“超出可控范围”。

美国银行美林金融管理部首席战略分析师迈克尔·哈特尼特曾预言了从7月11日开始的拐点。他指出：“这一天标志着债市之前历史性牛市的终结。”他预计，资产会开始向股市“大转换”，而且会非常“猛烈”。..11月全球债券市场总资产蒸发了1.7万亿美元。作为债市的风向指数，集合了全球各国国债和各大公司企业债的彭博巴克莱全球债券回报指数创下了自1990年创立以来的最大跌幅4%，几乎吞噬了今年的所有涨幅。这就是“大转换”，而道琼斯指数接近了20000点大关。

--the question is didn't feel our 股票市场“非理性繁荣” but very likely 债券市场的估值已“超出可控范围”。

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-26 02:51 回覆：

you can see what I felt.

OGEAX 12/15/2016 $35.04 12/24 $34.9
OLGAX 12/15/16 $32.09 12/24 32.05
OSGIX 12/15/16 24.66 12/24 24.58

T     12/16/16 41.67 12/24   42.73
Pru   12/19/16 105.91 12/24 $106.2
cmcsk 12/19/16 70.15 12/24   70.65

FLPSX 12/16/16 49.92 12/24 49.78ol
OGEIX 12/13/07 $33.76 down to 12/15/08 $19.75(since then I hardly monitor), 6/9/09 21.35 9/`5/09 23.84, 6/24/11 29.08 8/29/11 26.66 3/29/12 31.81 12/15/16 35.04

MARFX 12/19/16 20.93 12/24 20.98

FAGIX 12/16/16 9.69 12/24 9.74
FHIFX 12/16/16 7.48 12/24 8.48
FDIVX 12/16/16 33.14 12/24 $33.09

KAUAX 12/19/16 4.97 12/24 4.98
SPHIX 12/15/16 8.68 12/24 8.71
ABIAX 12/19/16 12.17 12/24 12.13
FMAGX 12/16/16 92.4 12/24 92.55
SSHYX 12/24 7.47


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2016/12/21 20:01

随着经济复苏，为了避免货币流通过热，美国实施加息
--from what I saw 降息 because market too hot, 加息 because market can't go up(people don't buy). maybe 5 more years I could see clearly if my husband doesn't sell out all.

I can't tell whether we lost huge money or not, it's a mess as at&t merge/split. after 11/28/05 it's make money but 10/19/04 277.41 11/18/05 312.00 down to 11/18/05 20.21
T (12/31/99 213.96, 11/18/05 20.21) 12/28/07 42.44 12/15/08 27.13 9/15/09 26.7 8/29/11 29.35 12/31/12 33.7 12/31/13 35.16 9/30/14 37.7 4/30/15 34.64 12/16/16 41.67

make good money
Pru (12/15/01 29.3) 12/28/07 92.86 12/15/08 24.61 9/15/09 50.89 3/29/12 62.76 4/2/15 80.42 12/19/16 105.91
ps we bought GVAL(?) insurance(cheated by sales) but bit better than yearly point to point anuity, much better than REIT

cmcsk (11/30/02 15.67) 12/28/07 18.18 12/15/08 15.6 9/15/09 17.42 8/29/11 20.86 12/31/12 37.36 12/31/13 51.97 9/30/14 35.74 3/16/15 59.75 12/19/16 70.15

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-21 20:03 回覆：

few recovered
FLPSX (8/1/01 27.3) 12/28/07 41.36 12/15/08 21.56 9/15/09 30.3 12/10/10 37.7 12/9/11 35.98 12/14/12 38.88 12/13/13 47.79 12/12/14 48.75 12/11/15 47.47 12/16/16 49.92

OGEIX 12/13/07 $33.76 down to 12/15/08 $19.75(since then I hardly monitor), 6/9/09 21.35 9/`5/09 23.84, 6/24/11 29.08 8/29/11 26.66 3/29/12 31.81 12/15/16 35.04

OLGAX 12/10/07 21.46 12/15/98 12.17 9/15/09 15.14 12/28/10 22.12 8/29/11 20.34 12/27/12 25.03 4/21/13 25.35 3/16/15 36.57 12/15/16 32.09

MARFX (2/6/07 19.07) 12/28/07 15.81 12/30/08 9.82 9/15/09 12.69 8/29/11 15.82 3/30/12 18.89 12/31/15 17.81 12/19/16 20.93

almost recover
OGEAX 10/12/07 $35.52 down to 12/23/08 19.78 12/22/09 25.28 12/21/10 22.43 12/21/11 28.12 12/19/12 32.79 4/1/13 35.56 12/15/16 35.04

OSGIX 5/25/07 $25.08 1228/07 22.28 12/15/08 11.51 12/7/09 16.15 12/28/10 22.71 8/19/11 19.14 3/29/12 21.28 4/21/13 21.78 3/16/15 26.63 12/15/16 24.66

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-21 20:03 回覆：

FAGIX 12/31/12 9.5 12/31/13 9.86 12/31/14 9.68(8/29 10.23)
12/31/15 9.15 12/16/16 9.69

FHIFX 12/31/12 9.39 12/31/13 9 12/31/14 8.5 12/31/15 8.01 12/16/16 8.46

SSHYX 12/21/12 8.52 12/20/13 8.19 12/19/14 7.65 12/23/15 7.03 12/16/16 7.48

FDIVX (3/3/00 26.31)12/28/07 40.1 down 12/15/08 20.26 12/4/09 28.2 12/30/10 30.05 12/2/11 26.17 12/4/15 35.6 12/16/16 33.14

KAUAX 12/28/07 6.24 12/30/08 3.52 12/29/09 4.69 12/29/10 5.46 8/29/11 4.76 12/31/15 5.26 12/19/16 4.97

far to recover
SPHIX (3/3/00 11.83) 12/31/07 8.61 12/31/08 6.04 12/31/09 8.46 12/31/10 8.94 12/30/11 8.64 12/31/12 9.34 12/31/13 9.37 12/31/14 8.9 12/31/15 7.9 12/15/16 8.68

ABIAX (7/28/06 20.68) 12/28//07 22.28 12/23/08 9.95 12/22/09 13.67 12/21/10 13.76 8/20/11 11.43 3/30/12 11.72 12/31/15 12.52 12/19/16 12.17

FMAGX (3/13/00 133.57) 12/28/07 94.4 down 12/15/08 43.02 12/30/09 64.8 12/3/10 70.18 12/28/11 62.56 12/27/12 72.58 12/6/13 90.01 12/5/14 92.94 12/4/15 91.78 12/16/16 92.4

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-21 20:07 回覆：

...加息 because market can't go up(people don't buy).

--very likely more and more retired/retiring in usa most of them began withdraw their savings/investments and/or like my husband doesn't want any risk(sell all investments to have solid principal)

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-21 21:25 回覆：

为啥要加息？2008年国际金融危机，当时美联储实施美元贬值，从而使资金进入美国债券、股市和房地产市场，市场逐步回暖，产业结构和企业经营状况也得以修复，随着经济复苏，为了避免货币流通过热，美国实施加息

--使资金进入美国房地产市场? Aaa we bought REIT $6000 (dividends cash) +$3580 (dividends reinvest) on 1/17/07 and 9/30/16 became $1173.44/$1544 most years we did get dividends except 3(?)years none. the worst is when unit price deeply down to $2(?) the auto-reinvest still the same unit price as $10.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-21 21:58 回覆：

we bought REIT because the sales told us that you don't want to buy and rent because the high risk you have to pay lawyer to get rid of renters without paying renting fee, plus you have to repair and clean out the mess....
in 20013 we bought 2nd house and began renting business indeed each renter left I have to spent 1-2(a year lease) and 2-3 month(2 years lease) clean/repairing. however house value not deeply down.
REIT dividends $31.68x4=$126.72/$9580=1.32%
principal loss: ($9580-$2717.44)/$9580=-71.6%

house value 300K(Jan. 07)-292K(current value)=8K(loss) 8k/300k=-2.6%

$1700x10(2month empty)=$17000-tax3054.66x2-reparing/maintain fee=$10890.68/300K =3.6% max.

PS However TX, Seatle houses value jump high because more immigrations enter as more jobs there.


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2016/12/17 22:32

厉以宁：中国新的人口红利将来自农村 ...“人口红利”，是指一个国家的劳动年龄人口占总人口比重较大，抚养率较低，为经济发展创造了有利的人口条件。随着2012年中国15至59岁劳动年龄人口在相当长时期里首次出现绝对下降，外界认为中国人口红利正趋于消失。

“(外界)说中国人口红利没有了，(我觉得)人口红利正在起来。”..当前中国正处在一个剧烈变化期，其中最大的变化就是人力资本革命正在开始。..劳动力回流是当前中国农村的另一大突出现象。由于中国城市就业形势发生变化，城市就业压力骤然增大，其吸纳和消化农村劳动就业的能力也有所下降。..“我在很多地方看到小微企业，是谁开的？‘打工仔’回来开的。”厉以宁表示，许多农民工在外打工多年，交了朋友、学了技术、懂了市场还积累了资金，相互抱团回家以后开办各种小微企业，从而让当地经济活了起来。

--very good indeed deserve 著名经济学家 reputation. never be fooled by 外界人口红利说, 15至59岁劳动年龄人口在相当长时期里首次出现绝对下降 that means finally popullations drop down it takes many years effort while Indo still can't but more. if only if one bad seed born that would kill many people's effort. to enhance people's capability, high quality, obey the laws... that is a real 人口红利.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-18 00:25 回覆：

because for renting we met potential renters most are from other state's 农村 including our 3rd renter which we never met before. including the one we tried to hire for roll-evenly our yards. in the past when we had a trip thru ILL and nearby states 农村, most gave impression the farmers got good house and rich except few quite poor house/barn shapes. And most of them sold their lands working for the big boss. the good thing is company control fertilizer/weeds killer/price... so the foods price more stable. the bad side you hardly can buy fresh even in the 农村. my husband told me what we saw the poor farmer's houses very likely they didn't sell lands to the company and very hard survived while the big company won't buy their lands.


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2016/12/17 12:02

香港《大公报》报道，美联储加息，对明年息口取态又偏向“鹰派”。美汇受支持抽高，港汇回软，港元拆息继续向上；市场忧虑热钱将加速撤出香港，投资者借势大手抛售港股套现，50只蓝筹股全军覆没，而下跌的股份总数接近3000千股。恒指虽成功守住两万二关口，但以约1.8%跌幅计算，表现为亚洲区内以至全球股市之中最伤，技术走势更出现“死亡交叉”，反映港股续有调整压力。

--I really don't understand why still 投资者 would be so easily impacted by usa random say say in stead of find out the past bad experiences as usa did before. certainly if 投资者 came from international "hot money" that's ok. you see 日股逆市升0.1%；韩国股市微跌0.01%；新加坡股市跌0.7%。欧洲股市15日普遍造好 only HK and/or china deeply suffered. obviously most chinese 投资者 didn't know usa well. we already many years not even bother to watch our existing investment, up and down won't impact us at all since 2009(hardly recording unit price by manual that because you need to pay new version then MS money software terminated). do I believe Trump can move back factories and make money by 100% usa made? just comparing usa health insurance and medical cost then you knew the answer.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 12:09 回覆：
correct: only taiwan, HK and/or china deeply suffered

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 12:54 回覆：

today we met the investment sales who declared Feb. 2017 would soon usa market crashed base on his experiences(he is 64, retired but continue working). we didn't buy his company's annuity product, becasue we were cheated before by another golden stone company sales sold yearly point-to-point in stead of monthly even we spent 2 hours to make sure he understood what type we wanted to buy.
earlier another man working for the sales, my husband told him been afraid SSR and pension fall down.
a bit earlier we received email from the sales who tried to sold gloden which I already posted in my another topic.
you see that is americans knowing the truth in usa.

we visited SSR office 5 times. my husband Nov. as 70, we went Sep.(within 3months as told) then officer told us too earlier but Oct. we told the man why we couldn't finish on-line register, he wanted us make appointment. we did.
then we were told on-line register in the office computer, we did at home but has problem can't enter age 70 to receive payment. the lady told us she couldn't help but make another appointment with professional staff. fortunately 3 days before the birthdate.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 12:54 回覆：

everything seemed OK and told we should receive 1st check around Dec 7. then didn't and coupe days later found SSR website still pending.
so we visited again fortunately we had deeply snow so very quickly face to face talking, then were told whether my husband using another name before(we were scared thought some scam happened to us), SSR could give us 6 checks for this year(my husband told him to get max. SSR not less), then we talked to another professional finally settle down.
why? we suspect SSR is short of money.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 13:26 回覆：

Just found we recived SSR on 12/14 $3,396.8(for Nov.) in stead of $3,406.9. we need to visit SSR office for the 6th time.

Fortunately I requested the professional print out the formular how SSR calculated on our 4th visiting. on the 5th visiting I did inquire whether we will receive the same amount as told. she said no change.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 13:41 回覆：

haaa at least 4 years ago(world journal blockaded my account and hardly visited the website any more) I made a copy that some one post how she got money back due to SSR mis-calculated. Fortunately I post my opinions here so found out not only we got less by told and also found out the printed formular also mis-calculated. according to the printing, at 66 we husband should get $2,581 at 11/2012 then 8% increased yearly till 70. the weird is on 11/2013 $2787.48(SSR:$2787.4), 11/2014 $3010.48(SSR:$2993.9), 11/2015 $3251.32(SSR:$3200.4), 11/2016 $3511.42(SSR $3406.9 but we got $3396.8).

Also it printed 10/2012 $2,598.2 higher than 11/2012 $2,581.

World journal writer didn't show her calculated number.

蝙蝠(amtrak) 於 2016-12-17 15:46 回覆：

印尼财长：印尼不惧美联储加息已有充分准备 ...财政部成功出售了共三组的美元为单位的国家债券，全部融资价值共35亿美元，将供作2017年初提早落实预算建设开支的用途。而且政府于12月12日通过中央银行又再一次延长印尼—日本双边货币互换安排协议，其最大使用规模的价值是227.6亿美元。而印尼与中国已于今年5月9日在雅加达延长了为期3年的印中双边货币互换安排协议，其最大使用规模为1300亿人民币或近达260万亿盾。她说：“这些措施都是针对着美联储要加息的问题，况且我们早先已持续加强经济基础。”...只要印尼保持低通胀率，美联储明年再度上调利率也不会太大影响印尼经济.

--wait to see whether 印尼 investors trust their government or like taiwan/HK and/or china people not knowing usa well, neither trust their government nor love their country enough.


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	2016/12/17 08:41
浙商银行经济分析师杨跃:美元指数目前已在历史高位，短期内还能继续上升的空间其实相对有限。同时，人民币汇率逼近整数关口“7”，具有较强的抵御能力，而且中国经济基础仍然非常好，长期看并没有持续贬值的基础。 --I'm not sure 美元指数目前已在历史高位, but I do know 美元 value kept down. a Anderson sales came by and we found each window replaced around $2000 with 20 years warrantee. in the beginning we would replace 6 windows, then dropped down 3 then one and still can't accept over $2200 for one window. indeed it is high-end product(wood mixed with poloxxx), but it's crazy price. for sliding door would be $4000+.

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