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.... .China is staring economic stagnation in the face, and the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is panicking.For the past three months, uncertainty over the course of Chinese development has intensified, with a steady flow of mostly bad economic news: yet another plunge in the stock market, which was already crumbling and kept afloat only by massive state intervention; mounting corporate debt; and a hemorrhaging of foreign exchange reserves, to name a few.China desperately needs more young people not only to fill the factories and staff the offices and schools, but also to increase consumption so that the country can shift from an investment- to a domestic consumption–led model of economic development. But such a strategic shift cannot possibly succeed in time to prevent China’s rise from ending. The End of China’s Rise.Beijing Is Running Out of Time to Remake the World.The prevailing consensus, in Washington and overseas, is that China is surging past the United States. “If we don’t get moving,” President Joe Biden has said, “they’re going to eat our lunch.” Countries everywhere are preparing, in the words of an Asian diplomat, for China to be “number one.” Plenty of evidence supports this view. China’s GDP has risen 40-fold since 1978. China boasts the world’s largest financial reserves, trade surplus, economy measured by purchasing power parity, and navy measured by number of ships. While the United States reels from a shambolic exit from Afghanistan, China is moving aggressively to forge a Sinocentric Asia and replace Washington atop the global hierarchy. .
.美國Tufts 大學政治經濟學教授Michael Beckley 以「中國崛起的終結（The End of China’s rise)」為題演講指出中共國的經濟成長已經成為歷史,不可能再振雄風。 中國留美經濟學家許成鋼教授更指出,中共因為其共產制度上的基因缺陷,註定其經濟的衰敗。即使過去三十年使用許多欺騙掠奪的手法,達到了快速的經濟成長,但將來ㄧ定難以為繼。 當川普再度當選總统以後,自由世界對中共的險惡已經覺醒,開始對中共施加技術和貿易上的抵制,並與中共國進行產業鏈的脫鈎。這些舉措已經導致中共國的外人投資走向枯竭,外資企業大量撤離,失業問題急速惡化,整個經濟陷入惡性通縮的困境,恐怕數十年都難以掙脫。
... (Michael Beckley)和(Hal Brands)兩名美國政治學家，在美國頗具影響力的刊物《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)發表了一篇題為《中國崛起的終結—北京重塑世界的時間不多了》文章(The End of Chinas Rise，Beijing Is Running Out of Time to Remake the World)。兩人隨後又在《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)上又發表一篇類似的文章，題為《中國是一個衰落的大國—這就是問題所在》 (China is a Declining Power—and Thats the Problem)。 兩篇文章一見刊，固然成為網路上熱搜的夯文，卻很快遭到各方批判是「謬論」，批判最凶的是歐洲各國的研究機構、智庫與學者；主要理由在於：這兩篇唱衰中國的文章，都是以極其偏窄的個體經濟觀點與指證個案，就推定「中國崛起已經見頂，且將轉進衰敗之路」，的確是相當膚淺的「鐵口直斷」。 他們2人狼狽為奸的胡說八道,任意批評中國是要付出代價的,但是中國近年來的許多問題更需要妥善的解決,善後處理,避免資本主義的惡勢力在中國,掠奪中國人辛苦所得.
(Michael Beckley)和(Hal Brands)兩人狼狽為奸惡意的批判中國. In Episode 276 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, the authors of a recently published book titled “Danger Zone,” about how to prepare America and the world for a peaking China. The book argues that the conventional wisdom about the long-term strategic threat that China poses to the existing international order is fundamentally wrong. If a war between the US and China is to break out, it could happen much sooner than the US defense establishment prepared for. Hal Brands and Michael Beckley’s basic thesis is that China is at a perilous moment in its development as a great power: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet increasingly losing confidence that time is on its side. Witness its aggression toward Taiwan, its record-breaking military buildup, and its efforts to dominate the critical technologies that will shape the world’s future. While a new cold war with China may last decades, both Beckley and Brands believe that the crucial battle that could determine much of what that war will look like may well be decided before the end of this decade. This episode is meant to help establish what it would take to win a battle over Taiwan and demonstrate to the leadership in Beijing that attempting to change the status quo in Asia would not only likely result in failure for China but almost certainly in the catastrophic destruction of the global economy and the permanent political isolation of the Chinese Communist Party.
這兩篇唱衰中國的文章都同樣提到,今天有很多西方國家視中國為敵人,擔憂中國終究要取代美國稱霸全世界,更擔心中國領導層自認為「權力已達頂時」。 《外交政策》新近的歷史研究指出：經濟高速發展往往會使一個國家野心膨脹，希望在全球擔任更重要的角色，人民對國家期望提升也會肇致「敵國們」感到緊張；可是，一旦經濟成長放慢，人民感到不滿，領導層擔憂爆發動亂，於是大肆鎮壓異己。與此同時，領導層為遏制敵國，高舉愛國主義，發動擴張政策，掠奪經濟資源及市場，以擊退外國的威脅控制。
中國與外籍學者專家呼籲中國政府,必須採取有效的政策與法律規章,避免可能性會拖垮中國經濟的10 大難題. (1)近期習近平打壓知名科技企業及其他大型民營企業，旨在向企業家傳達「不可大到不可管理」的波及效應；應該採取發達國家資本,扼阻私人資本的擴張,掠奪人民的利益,符合社會主義的小康均富的政策. (2)恒大集團集萬達集團的債務危機；迅速打壓房地產盲目的投資炒地皮及抬拉房地產的行情並有效控制銀行的不良融資. (3)中國民生銀行的大規模違約；必要時令其破產重整,讓負責減少降低,保障存款人的權益,嚴厲整肅銀行經理人的貪污索賄. (4)中國眾多小型銀行倒閉；嚴查工商社會各行各業,惡性倒閉,關門停業,撈一票走人的老板及股東.訴之法律嚴懲不怠. (5)中國保險產業大危機；完善重整保險產業的法律條文及規章,扼阻假性保險合約,掏空被保險人繳納保費,移作其他不當的投資. (6)中國股市；研究合併上海證券交易所及深鎮證券交易所的可行性,讓資本市場更開放的募集資金,健全股票市場的交易,並全面推行電子化全球化的交易系統,與國際股市接軌,讓國際資金,匯聚中國證券市場發展ㄡ (7)中國「大到不可以倒」的大型銀行風險；修改銀行法,提高銀行的風險管制,及第三者的監察制度,降低銀行過度膨脹的風險. (8)中國債市崩潰；制定健全國家債券的各項法律,規章,條文,統一由中國人民銀行(中央銀行) 發行國家債券,統一調整國家資本管制運作包括發行國際(中國債券) 進入國際債券市場交易提升中國國家債券的價值. (9)人民幣可能與一籃子貨幣脫鉤，導致「人民幣倒下」的重大效應； 應該擴大人民幣國際化的使用,擴展中國銀行海外各國分行的建制,於各國的國際機場 ,港口,鐵路車站,設置ATM.提款機,提供充足的人民幣佰元現金鈔票與美元,歐元並駕齊驅,如今僅有俄羅斯(莫斯科 聖彼得堡),美國(紐約,芝加哥,洛杉磯)英國(倫敦)法國(巴黎)德國(法蘭克福)義大利(羅馬,米蘭)希臘(雅典)南非 (約翰妮斯堡),埃及(開羅).KSA(利雅德)UAE(杜拜) 馬來西亞(吉隆坡),新加坡,香港,設有分行,提供人民幣儲蓄存提款外匯交易等銀行業務,同時也提供ATM提供人民幣佰元現鈔提領,台灣則由台灣銀行的話ATM.提人民幣. (10)中國金融崩潰導致全球經濟崩潰。除非第3次世界大戰爆發 或是中美戰爭 影響到 否則中國金融崩潰導致全球經濟崩潰是不成立也不存在的假設性議題.` .
2015.新版佰元人民幣已經發行使用. . It’s really a great honor to be here. We’re often told that we’re living in an Asian century that’s going to revolve around a forever rising China, but I think when the history books about the 2020s are written, they’re going to say that this was the decade that China’s epic rise finally came to an end, and that changed everything. It’s what took us fully from a post-Cold War, globalized, happy international order to one of much more intense security competition among rival blocs. So I realize that’s not the conventional wisdom, so I’m going to develop that in three key points. The first is that China’s rise is not just slowing down, it’s not just ending, it’s actually starting to reverse. The second point is that the China hangover is here, and what I mean by that is many countries tied their economic wagons to China. They got rich selling into the China market, they became dependent on Chinese loans, but now the slowdown in China’s economy, which lifted up so many economies around the world, is going to drag more of them back down, and already countries are starting to point the finger at China, which is putting China in a much more difficult geopolitical situation at the same time that its economy is slowing. And then the third and final point I’ll make is, I don’t think China’s going to react particularly well to these pressures. It’s a classic peaking power, meaning that it was once rising, but now it’s facing slowing growth and greater geopolitical pushback, and what we’ve seen from past peaking powers in history is that they don’t just mellow out and dial back their ambitions, they tend to crack down on dissent at home, and then expand aggressively abroad, and I think there’s already evidence that unfortunately China is starting to inch its way down this ugly historical path. So I’ll get to all that fun, wonderful story in a little bit, but first this idea that China’s rise is reversing. I mean that literally. .
. 但是美國Tufts 大學政治經濟學教授Michael Beckley,卻以其他的項目,借題發揮大肆抨擊批判中國的不是,他從個人的角度去批評中國的一切,實屬不理性的衝動,完全是要彰顯出個人的知名度,好爭取2025年經費預算及續約聘書,美國Tufts 大學並不是一流的學府研究所,因此MB.並沒有被美國的知名智庫,聘為顧問,研究中國專題,由此看來完全是MB.個人做秀,無法影響到中國的改革開放與各式各樣專案項目的發展,中國扔然按照自己的經濟建設計劃向前邁進.. .https://youtu.be/zAtUXoewlhI?si=VgdofiTBoH1kdzzn
MB.召開學術報告演會那是他要繳出成績單否則2025年就無聘書就要失業喇. .
Are We Witnessing the End of China’s Rise? With its monumental shift in global politics and economics, China’s ascent in the global order has been a defining feature for decades. With its monumental shift in global politics and economics, China’s ascent in the global order has been a defining feature for decades. No longer a developing nation in a unipolar world, China evolved into a superpower that compromised the global balance of power. Its Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) and participation in BRICS, along with rapid economic growth, increasing geopolitical influence, and However, recent developments suggest that China’s impressive ascent may be have peaked. This would have profound implications, not only for China but for the global system. A Reversal of Fortune Experts agree that China’s rise is no longer just slowing; it appears to be reversing. For many years, China’s growth defied expectations, propelled by a massive demographic change, ample natural resources, and a favorable global trade environment. But these elements that had once propelled China forward are no longer capable of doing so. The country faces mounting debt, declining productivity, and severe resource shortages. Its once-resilient economy is now laden with inefficiencies. This inefficiency means China is spending more to produce less. Debt has swelled to levels surpassing even those of the United States, and there seems to be no end. China’s citizens have grown increasingly pessimistic, with surveys showing growing dissatisfaction among Chinese citizens. Youth unemployment is high, and the wealthy are increasingly moving their assets and families out of the country. The so-called ‘lie flat generation’, disillusioned youth struggling to find their place in a faltering economy, encapsulates the social and economic implications of China’s economic slowdown. . U.S.-China relations are becoming increasingly hostile, with many issues ending in Historically, rivalries between nations often end in significant shifts in the balance of power, usually through conflict. While a cold war between the U.S. and China could remain stable, the risk of military escalation is real. Both nations are heavily armed and ideologically opposed, and one miscalculation by either side could result in ruin for both. . If not Xi Jinping himself, then perhaps China’s next generation of leaders will recognize the need to prioritize domestic stability and economic reform over geopolitical ambition. Similarly, the U.S. and its allies could find ways to engage China constructively while maintaining firm boundaries. Much will depend on the decisions of future Chinese leadership and the ability of the global community to navigate this critical period without resulting in open conflict. Today, the world must adapt to a reality in which China’s rise is diminishing. The era of rapid growth and easy economic partnerships is over, replaced by a more complicated and charged dynamic. Whether this marks the beginning of a new and peaceful chapter, will depend on how Beijing, the U.S. and the rest of the world respond to the challenges ahead.
. Chinese economy performs better than forecast.Chinas economy performed better than the expected outlook during the first quarter of 2024. The country’s GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), up from 5.2% during the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the Bureau for Economic Research’s latest Weekly Review released. This was more robust than expected, as a Reuters poll estimated growth of 4.6%. Growth was mainly driven by strong growth in high-tech manufacturing, which contributed to a solid 6.1% increase in industrial production in the first quarter,” BER economists noted in the report. Manufacturing of electronic equipment, charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs), and 3D printing surged by 40% in the first quarter. Investment in fixed assets such as factories, roads, and power grids increased by 4.5%, boosted by a 9.9% increase in manufacturing investment that was offset by a 9.5% fall in property investment. “Retail sales were also up 4.7% in the first quarter, boosted by increased spending on catering services, cigarettes and alcohol, and sports and entertainment activities,” BER noted. “China has set a GDP growth target of about 5% for the year, and while we expect growth to slow in the second quarter, it certainly is off to a good start to achieve this goal.”
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