Ma tests cordiality of cross-strait ties

By Jens Kastner 

TAIPEI - The first months of 2010 have brought about great changes in Taiwan-China relations. Not since the end of the Chinese civil war in the late 1940s has there been such an abundance of goodwill between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang (KMT). The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is due to be signed in June. Against domestic opposition, Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou has invested huge political capital in the ongoing cross-strait reconciliation.

Still, two recent incidents suggest that Taiwan's KMT government is not as submissive to China as its opponents claim. Firstly, Ma has publicly requested that the United States sell Taiwan advanced F-16C/D fighters. Secondly, media reports claim Taiwan secretly tested medium-range missiles this month that are capable of striking vital targets in China. Not only Shanghai and ballistic missile bases on the east coast, but Beijing, Chongqing and the Three Gorges Dam are now believed to be within range of Taiwan's arsenal of deterrent weapons.

Despite Ma's maneuvers, there has been none of Beijing's hallmark tirades against Taiwanese arms projects, and China has been remarkably quiet. While Beijing snubbed United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates on his recent Asia trip over the possible sale of F-16C/D fighters to Taiwan, it has refrained from criticizing Ma's administration over developments that could revive a cross-strait arms race.

The alleged Taiwanese medium-range missile tests took place in Pingtung county, a tropical area in southern Taiwan. The claim was that in early June, at Jiupeng base, Hsiung Feng IIE (HF-2E) cruise missiles and also medium-range missiles were test-fired. Almost coinciding with the timeframe for Taipei and Beijing's plans to sign the ECFA, domestic and international media picked up on the story of the tests, supposedly from information secretly obtained from high-ranking members of the Taiwanese military. According to Hong Kong and Taiwan media reports, final tests were due to be held this month.

The medium-range missiles reportedly have a range of 1,900 to 2,200 kilometers, putting targets such as Beijing and China's giant Three Gorges Dam in range. A strike on the world's largest electricity-generating plant would endanger the lives of millions of Chinese, since the cities of Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai are situated downstream of the dam. Taipei has long denied the existence of such a program.

The domestically developed HF-2E has a range of 800 kilometers and could therefore reach Shanghai and China's southeast coast. The project was initiated by Ma's predecessors, Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, entering mass production in 2005.

In October 2009, Jiupeng base was reportedly the site of the Taiwan military's largest-ever missile exercise - a failed test of the HF-2E cruise missiles. Of the military bases in Pingtung, where middle-income families typically spend their holidays, none are as shrouded in mystery as Jiupeng. Every now and then, on streets packed with surfboard-carrying vacationers, military convoys drive by at walking speed.

Hong Kong magazine Yazhou Zhoukan suspected that the genuine purpose of combined maneuvers earlier this month involving Taiwan's navy, air force and army was a cover-up of medium-range missiles tests conducted at Jiupeng base.

Taiwanese defense officials have dismissed the reports, but nonetheless confirmed that "various weapons systems" were being worked on as scheduled.

Observers of cross-strait defense issues don't seem to have too many doubts over the allegations.

"I believe Taiwan's military has continuously been developing medium-range missiles. Changes of administrations have either accelerated or slowed down the project but never stopped," Wang Jyh-Perng, reserve captain of the Taiwan navy and associate research fellow at the Association for Managing Defense and Strategies, said in an interview with Asia Times Online. "However, I don't believe that these media reports are based on recent information collected from high-ranking members of the Taiwanese military."

Members of Taiwan's opposition obtained the information a while ago but waited for an "appropriate time" to pass it to the media, Wang said, adding that was provided by the imminent signing of the ECFA. "To me, the whistleblower's objective was simply to interfere with the ECFA signing process and to highlight the fact that China still has 1,500 of its own missiles aimed at Taiwan."

However, since neither Beijing nor Taipei allowed a dispute over the matter to develop, the opposition's plan doesn't seem to have worked and seems likely to backfire.

Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party lost the presidential elections in 2008 partly due to corruption allegations surrounding Chen and his family and because a majority of Taiwanese did not support its fierce anti-China rhetoric.

Taiwanese voters have a very different image of Ma, and a relativly large section of the population dislikes him for his overly clean, out-of-touch image and what they claim is his submissive approach to Beijing.

After all, it was Ma's administration that prohibited Taiwanese from displaying national flags near meetings with mainland delegations. Voices that accuse Ma's KMT of selling out Taiwan's sovereignty are not only being heard from hardcore supporters of Taiwanese independence.

To make up for Ma's weak image and to counter widespread criticism that the Hong Kong-born president simply "doesn't love Taiwan", the newly fueled notion that the KMT government seeks to obtain powerful Taiwan-made deterrent weaponry could come in handy. The missile tests show Ma standing up to China, but also to the US. In Taiwan, there is a widespread public perception that the US has been overcharging in arms deals.

The rumors of Taiwanese medium-range missile tests and Ma's request for American F-16C/D fighter jets didn't lead to Beijing furiously condemning Ma's KMT government. Therefore, the ECFA negotiations that are immensely important to the Chinese government could proceed undisturbed.

The F-16C/D sale is unlileky to happen because Ma's administration only pretends to be interested in the purchase, according to Wang. "Ma keeps stressing that Taiwan must develop sufficient defensive strength, but he does so only to cater to public opinion and to keep the US happy," he said.

Ma's KMT government is puitting on a precarious balancing act. Although the current cross-strait situation is somewhat relaxed, there is a realistic danger that future Chinese domestic problems could develop into external conflict, Wang said.

In any case, neither medium-range missiles, cruise missiles nor fighter jets are desirable for Taiwan because its economy is too small to support an arms race with China, while a better option for a military facing a much larger opponent would be the purchase of inexpensive and effective submarines, according to Wang. Comparing Taiwan's situation to that of North Korea, Wang notes on his blog, "The [recent] sinking of the [South Korean corvette] Cheonan makes clear that a party that finds itself at a disadvantage can still gain an asymmetric advantage and that the submarine is the weapon to accomplish this."

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based reporter.

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