个人估计不会。台湾虽然因内斗而趋于停滞，仍会比菲律宾繁荣先进许多。毕竟两地基础、文化等还是有很大区别的。当然长远来看，可能被中国大陆逐步赶超，十年内多个沿海省份（不包括直辖市）人均超过台湾，2031年前后中国整体人均超过台湾是中位预测。不过即使到那时，仍远远领先菲律宾，政治上能否继续保持现状不一定。说“台湾会菲律宾化”有些耸人听闻。

为什么？刚看到一篇菲律宾棉兰老什么报纸的新闻评论：

Is a Russia-China-Iran Axis in the offing? By Perry Diaz

里面部分内容

Over the next two millennia, China invaded, conquered, and annexed other nations. In 1274 and 1281, China, under Kublai Khan, invaded Japan but failed.

In 1405, during the reign of the Ming Dynasty in China, Emperor Yung Lo claimed the island of Luzon and placed it under his empire. When Yung Lo died in 1424, the new Emperor Hongxi, Yung Lo's son, lost interest in the colony and the colonial government was dissolved.

When the communists took over China in 1949, Chinese leader Mao Zedong outlined his global goal: he must conquer the globe where we will create a powerful state.In 1951, the first country to fall was Tibet. Consequently, China annexed and declared Tibet as a more national interest.

Currently, China has territorial disputes with 22 neighboring countries, to wit: Japan, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Nepal, North Korea, the Philippines, South Korea, Bhutan, Burma (Myanmar), Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Kazakhstan, Laos, Brunei, Tajikistan, Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Mongolia, and Afghanistan. She also claims about 90% of the entire South China Sea including the more than 300 islands that extend farther to the East China and Yellow Seas. Mao asserted that these territories were lost due to the fall of the Qing Empire. And now, Xi wants them back

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不得了！且不说将西藏等当作独立国家，明朝永乐皇帝曾将吕宋岛合并到本国，二十年后才放弃？中国和朝鲜韩国尼泊尔不丹哈萨克柬埔寨老挝泰国塔吉克印尼新加坡阿富汗。。。。都有领土纠纷（中国和泰国、柬埔寨甚至没有陆地边界，陆上最近相隔数百里，海上也一样）？此人在写小说？即使台湾“外独会”论坛上的独派都不至于写如此可笑的文章，在菲律宾竟然能登上报纸。不是种族歧视，南岛民系智商可能确实有问题，这种纯属小说的文章都能上报，而且该文下面facebook评论者中居然没有发现有错的。。。

那篇联合报造谣中国承认科索沃独立的报道，下面有不止一个台湾网友指出根本是无稽之谈，可见台湾虽也有白痴妓者，起码还有明白人。

台湾再怎么乱，毕竟大多数还是华裔血统，智商、能力等和菲律宾非同一档次，不大可能“菲律宾化”。从这篇文章及其评论就能看出菲律宾人的幻想能力确实超群，感性远远多于理性，当初繁荣一时无非美国殖民时代大量经援，一旦自立后路遥知马力就知根底。但海峡两岸同为华人，台湾现有较高人均建立在清末到日据时代的先发优势，同时代中国大陆一直在倒退，1950年前后两岸人均相差三倍多，以后被反超却并非不可能。