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日本最受亞太民眾歡迎?
2015/09/10 14:21:27瀏覽1883|回應6|推薦60

本月初,美國的皮尤研究中心﹝Pew Research Center﹞發表了一份調查報告,標題是「亞太民眾如何看對方及其國家領導人」﹝How Asia-Pacific Publics See Each Other and Their National Leaders﹞,副標題寫著「日本被視為最受歡迎,沒有領袖得到多數支」﹝Japan Viewed Most Favorably, No Leader Enjoys Majority Support﹞。﹝1

該調查報告顯示,得到以外亞太民眾好感的中位數是71%歡迎度高於大陸、、和南韓。但是這結論不但和一般人的認知有落差,更有誤導讀者之嫌。於是我分析了該報告的資料:

南韓

馬來西

84%

78

45

61

82

19

66

82

菲律

81

54

48

68

澳大利

80

57

58

61

71

63

51

42

巴基斯

48

82

16

15

46

41

---

28

南韓

25

61

64

---

12

---

24

47

---

9

63

21

中位

71

57

51

47

排序

1

2

3

4

資料來源Pew Research Center2

果然,我發現該報告的結論有明顯的問題,簡單的說,只有12%的中大陸民眾對日有好感,而大陸的人口佔了以外的九個國家中人口的四成,再怎麼算也不會得到71%亞太民眾好感

皮尤研究中心的報告犯了一個基本的錯誤,那就是沒有考慮到人口權值,把大陸和人口與台灣相當澳大利放在一起各投一票有道理嗎?這又不是聯合國大會的投票,當然有問題。

就像算學期平均成績要考慮學分加權一樣,不能直接把各科成績加起來除以學科數。我試著將人口權值考慮進去,得到以下表格內容

人口

百萬

加權

加權

加權

南韓

南韓

加權

馬來西

30

84%

2520

78

2340

45

1350

61

1830

90

82

7380

19

1710

66

5940

82

7380

菲律

98

81

7938

54

5292

48

4704

68

6664

澳大利

23

80

1840

57

1311

58

1334

61

1403

250

71

17750

63

15750

51

12750

42

10500

巴基斯

182

48

8736

82

14924

16

2912

15

2730

1252

46

57592

41

51332

---

---

28

35056

南韓

50

25

1250

61

3050

64

3200

---

---

1357

12

16284

---

---

24

32568

47

63779

127

---

---

9

1143

63

8001

21

2667

加權總計

121290

96852

72759

132009

計算人口

3332

2102

2207

3409

加權平均

 

36

46

33

39

排序

 

3

1

4

2

人口權值考慮進去以後只得到36%亞太民眾好感,低於大陸46%南韓39%!這樣的結果和皮尤研究中心的結論恰好相反,卻符合一般亞太民眾的認知。

我未能在皮尤研究中心的網站找到他們的回饋信箱,如果您剛好知道請告知,我將與他們聯絡。

參考資料

1. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/09/02/how-asia-pacific-publics-see-each-other-and-their-national-leaders/

2. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/09/02/how-asia-pacific-publics-see-each-other-and-their-national-leaders/asia-heat-map/
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日皇裕仁明仁正仁德仁文仁水仁天皇陛下
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2015/09/30 10:23
日本國是一個遵守國際秩序的國家!
SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-10-01 12:02 回覆:

你指的是偷襲珍珠港嗎?


nothing special
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You're welcome.
2015/09/11 19:42

Basically, I doubt PEW will admit their mistake; however, how the data and conclusion of a survey can be manupulated is well known, professionally and politically. At least, they should hear a different voice, we should thank you for the effort.

How the survey can be manupulated? The Languages is one biggest questionable key. What language PEW used for their questions to each indivisual countries? English? How many Chinese, Japanese or Korean really understand the English questions? If English is the language of the questionair, the sample size turns out another problem. If indivisual languages of each countries used, then, the of answers of the questionair are doubtable, for lost in translation never be a joke.

SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-09-15 12:48 回覆:

I haven’t received any response from Pew Research yet.  They may not acknowledge any mistake they made but they should at least provide an explanation.  I will keep you informed.


nothing special
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2015/09/11 10:14

Try the feed back site:

http://www.pewresearch.org/contact-form/

SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-09-11 12:11 回覆:

Thank you for letting me know the feedback site.  I just sent my feedback which is attached below.

Below please find my comments regarding your September 2, 2015 article “How Asia-Pacific Publics See Each Other and Their National Leaders.”
I respect your professional expertise in sample collection. However, the conclusion (i.e., Japan is viewed most favorable in other Asia-Pacific public) derived from the data you collected may opposite to the views of Asia-Pacific general public.
Your data shows that Japan is viewed favorable by 46% India people and 12% Chinese people. The population of these two countries accounts for about 80% of the population among the 9 listed countries (other than Japan). Without any further complicate calculation, one would not believe that Japan should be viewed as favorable by more than half of the total population of the Asia-Pacific public.  In other words, the median of 71% is meaningless and is somewhat misleading.
In fact, if the population of each country is used as a weight, the weighted average of Japan’s favorable view by other Asia-Pacific public will be only 36%, which is actually 10% less than that of China using the same method.


驅逐低端人口,這樣對嗎?
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2015/09/11 02:01
版主的算法,確實比較合理。
謝謝版主的細心。
SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-09-11 12:12 回覆:

謝謝您的肯定。


多硯坊 (休)
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2015/09/10 17:43

程度太差且別有意圖
與台南副市長的登革熱死亡率

簡直是異曲同工

SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-09-11 12:14 回覆:

對一個以調查報告為主要產出的研究機構來說,這樣的結論方式真的很誇張。


光復
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2015/09/10 16:56
美國,唬弄
SJW(sjwang2) 於 2015-09-11 12:15 回覆:

或許存心誤導讀者。